Ontario Municipal Human Resources Association

Disability and sick leave data have long helped organizations understand workforce health, monitor absence trends, and support employees through recovery and return to work.

But what if that same data could tell us even more?

Beyond measuring today’s absences, disability trends can provide valuable insight into the workforce challenges of tomorrow. When viewed alongside broader workplace indicators, they can help leaders anticipate risk, strengthen workforce planning, and identify emerging issues before they become larger organizational challenges.

To explore these trends, we reviewed 6,110 sick leave and disability claims managed within the Public Administration sector across Canada between 2022 and 2025. The study includes employees from multiple public-sector organizations, including more than ten Ontario municipalities and employee groups such as first responders and social service professionals. While not representative of every Canadian public-sector employer, the findings offer valuable insight into trends affecting municipal workplaces.

Claims Managed Within the Public Administration Sector (2022-2025)

Mental health claims increased from 20% of all claims in 2022 to 32% in 2025, representing a 60% increase over four years. 

The less obvious trend may be even more important. Workplace-related issues increased from 2.5% to 7.0% of claims, nearly tripling during the same period. Yet despite increases in both mental health claims and workplace-related issues, average claim duration remained relatively stable at approximately 46 days. 

If organizations were simply dealing with more severe illnesses, disability durations would likely have increased significantly. Instead, the data suggests something different. 

Organizations may not be facing a duration problem. They may be facing a complexity problem. 

Historically, disability claims were often viewed as straightforward events: an employee became ill, recovered, and returned to work. Today, cases increasingly involve overlapping factors such as mental health concerns, accommodation requirements, workplace conflict, staffing shortages, organizational change, leadership transitions, and return-to-work planning. 

This does not mean workplace issues are causing mental health absences. Rather, it suggests workplace dynamics are becoming a more common consideration within disability management. 

For HR leaders, the challenge is no longer simply helping employees recover. It is understanding and responding to the increasing complexity surrounding employee absences. 

Using Workforce Data to Forecast Risk 

Most organizations review disability data after an employee has already gone off work. By then, they are reacting rather than anticipating. 

Viewing these indicators together shifts the focus from explaining absences to identifying the conditions that may precede them. 

The value is not found in any single metric. It is found in how they move together. 

For example, rising mental health claims, overtime, and vacancy rates may signal workforce capacity challenges. Rising workplace complaints combined with declining psychological safety may signal leadership, communication, or organizational change concerns. 

A single indicator rarely predicts a workforce challenge. Complexity emerges when multiple indicators begin moving in the same direction. 

Looking Ahead 

The most important finding from this study is not simply that mental health claims increased from 20% to 32%, nor that workplace issues nearly tripled. 

It is that both trends increased simultaneously while disability duration remained stable. 

This pattern suggests employers may be entering a new phase of workforce management where success is defined not by reducing disability duration, but by recognizing and responding to increasingly complex interactions between employee health, workplace dynamics, accommodations, leadership practices, and workforce capacity. 

The organizations that gain the greatest value from their workforce data will not simply track who was absent. They will use disability trends alongside workforce indicators to identify emerging risks and intervene before they become larger organizational challenges. 

Written by: Christine Nenonen , Director of Operations, Acclaim Ability Management Inc.